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Is a Heat Pump Worth It? Calculate Your ROI
Find out your heat pump payback period, federal and state rebates, monthly savings and 10-year net savings in seconds — built on real state electricity rates, gas prices and climate-zone COP data.
Calculate My SavingsYour home
Your typical winter-month gas (or oil) heating bill, before hot water and cooking.
Heated floor area — used to recommend a heat pump capacity in tons.
California · Warm (South / Southwest)
Electricity $0.32/kWh · Gas $1.50/therm · COP 3.3
Payback period
No payback within range
After all rebates applied
Net install cost
$5,000
Gross $12,000 − $7,000 rebates
Monthly savings
$0
Was $180 → now $341.04
10-year net savings
-$5,000
$0 gross savings over 10 yrs
Recommended size
3.5 tons
Rounded to nearest ½ ton
CO₂ cut per year
2,772 kg
28 t over 10 yrs
Heat used
1,440 therms
12,789 kWh with heat pump
Cumulative net savings over 10 years
Rebates applied
- Federal — IRA Energy Efficient Home Improvement Tax Credit−$2,000
- California — TECH Clean California + SGIP−$5,000
- Your net cost$5,000
Estimates only — based on representative 2026 California rates and ASHRAE climate-zone COP. Always get at least three installer quotes before deciding.
How it works
Pick your state
Electricity rates, gas prices, climate-zone COP and rebates all vary by state — we use local data for 15 high-adoption states.
Add your bill and home size
Your monthly heating bill sets how much you currently spend; your home size sets the recommended heat pump capacity in tons.
See payback and 10-year savings
We apply the federal IRA tax credit and state rebates, then project annual savings, payback period and 10-year net savings.
What goes into the estimate
Rebates & tax credits
The federal IRA Energy Efficient Home Improvement Credit gives up to $2,000 per year for heat pumps. Many states and utilities layer their own rebates on top, from $500 to $10,000. The calculator applies both automatically.
Climate-zone COP
Coefficient of performance (heat delivered per unit of electricity) ranges from about 2.5 in cold northern zones to 3.5 in hot southern zones. We use an ASHRAE-zone heating-season average for each state.
Heat load
Your current gas bill is converted into therms and BTU of heat your home actually needs. The same heat delivered by a heat pump needs far less purchased energy thanks to COP.
Sizing
Capacity is recommended in tons (1 ton = 12,000 BTU/h) using a square-foot-per-ton rule of thumb by climate zone, rounded to the nearest half ton. An installer Manual J is still required.
Frequently asked questions
How is the heat pump payback period calculated?
Payback period is the time it takes for your cumulative heating-bill savings to equal your net installation cost (gross cost minus the federal IRA tax credit and any state/utility rebate). We convert your current gas bill into the BTU of heat your home needs, then size the heat pump electricity use using a climate-zone COP, price that electricity at your state rate, and divide net cost by annual savings. Most homes land between 4 and 10 years after incentives.
How much can I save with a heat pump over 10 years?
It depends on your local gas price, electricity rate, climate zone and rebates. The calculator shows your monthly and annual savings, then multiplies annual savings by the 10-year horizon and subtracts your net install cost to give net 10-year savings. In cold states with strong rebates (Massachusetts, New York, Maine), 10-year net savings often reach five figures; in warm low-rebate states the savings come mostly from avoided gas use.
What rebates and tax credits are available for heat pumps in 2026?
The federal IRA Energy Efficient Home Improvement Credit covers 30% of heat pump and installation costs up to $2,000 per year. Many states and utilities add their own rebates on top, ranging from $500 to $10,000 (for example Mass Save in Massachusetts and NYSERDA Clean Heat in New York). The calculator applies the $2,000 federal credit plus the state rebate automatically, but you should confirm current program rules with your installer and utility.
How big a heat pump do I need for my home?
Heat pump capacity is sized in tons (1 ton = 12,000 BTU/hour). A rough rule of thumb is 400 square feet per ton in cold climates, 500 in mixed climates, and 600 in hot climates. The calculator recommends a capacity (rounded to the nearest half ton) based on your home size and ASHRAE climate zone. A proper Manual J load calculation by an installer is still required before purchase.
Are these figures guaranteed?
No. Every result on this site is an estimate built from representative 2026 US data for electricity rates, gas rates, climate-zone COP and installation cost. Real quotes vary with your home insulation, ductwork, installer and local program rules. Always get at least three certified installer quotes before committing.